March Madness Sweet 16 Picks

So last night I went 3/4 on my picks as I hit on Duke +1, Arkansas +9.5, Villanova -5.5 and lost on Arizona -1.5. I felt good about all 4 picks, but Arizona's offense didn't look like the highest scoring team in the country last night, so I had to take the loss on an otherwise great night. Tonight's slate looks very promising. As always, i'll dive into my reasoning for each pick below but here are my four picks for the night:

Providence +7.5

Miami -1.5

UCLA -2.5

Purdue -12.5

****Betting against St. Peters when they have the lord on their side****

Providence +7.5: Do I really need to explain this pick? This s the farthest anyone on this Kansas team has reached in the tournament, and it's the farthest they're going to reach in the tournament. I actually love moneyline Providence here at +265, but +7.5 feels like the play as it is a super safe bet. Providence is the more physical team, and I'm prepared to watch Nate Watson body a Kansas team that is battling injuries, and hasn't played the best competition so far in the tournament, narrowly squeaking by Creighton in last weeks round of 32. Take Providence to the bank, and if you can find a future for them to make Final Four, take that too!

Miami -1.5: Now, as I'm editing this blog I see that a lot of sites have jumped Miami to -3, and I still like them at that, so I'm taking them at -1.5 but really feel comfortable they'll win by 5+. This Miami team has something to prove, and if I can be honest, I don't think this Iowa State team is very good at all. I watched them in the first two rounds, and neither Wisconsin or LSU looked even average against them, both teams shot horrendously, and both were still very close games. I feel pretty confident in this take that they aren't legit as I watched them play 3 times before the tournament (versus Baylor, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma) and they look relatively the same in every game. They're a team that doesn't shoot well from the field, free throw, or 3 point line. They commit a plethora of turnovers, and end up in the double bonus in more games then not. They're average in rebounding and assists per game, and they have little star power to carry them late in games. On the other side, Miami is a team that does the little things right. They run the floor with a great pace, shoot pretty decently, , defend well, shoot pretty decently, and have a nearly even steals/turnover ratio. I'm big on guards Isaiah Wong and Kameron McGusty to take charge this game and lead the way against Iowa State.

UCLA -2.5: UNC has the size advantage, but I think it's actually going to hurt them in the long run. UCLA runs practically 4 guards, and what they lack in size they make up for in heart, hustle, and touch around the rim. This UCLA team shoots well, defends well, and is super quick in transition. The duo of Johnny Juzang and Tiger Campbell has taken care of business so far and will look to continue their strong play going forward. Juzang has been a bit quiet for UCLA despite still leading the team, and if he can get it going he can really be the difference maker in this game. I believe Jamie Jacquez should be healthy enough to play some minutes, which is a massive boost for UCLA. On the other side, UNC is a hit or miss team, when they're good they look like they can beat anyone in the country, but when they're not good they look like they don't even belong in the tournament. I think UNC's luck runs out and the better team prevails tonight. Take the Bruins as another future Final Four team if your sportsbook has solid odds for them.

Purdue -12.5: I hate this pick. HATE it. Betting against the only team left with the lord on their side. But what am I supposed to do? They simply can't keep upsetting teams. Against Kentucky, St. Peters shot better and made the plays in transition that were the difference makers. I didn't believe Murray State was a very legit team, but St. Peters looked very solid against them once again running the floor with a fierce intensity only a mid major could have. What stands out when you watch St. Peters is their heart and hustle, which sounds cliche but it's true. Their guys have simply wanted it more than their first two opponents, but tonight against Purdue is a whole other world. Purdue is arguably the best team in this tournament, as they look like absolute monsters when stacked up against St. Peters. I expect Purdue to out rebound St. Peters by at least double the amount of boards, while playing both better offense and defense. This is a recipe for a blowout, and that's what I think will happen. Purdue is a lights out free throw shooting team, who makes nearly 50% of their shots from the field, and is by far the superior defensive and rebounding team. Who on St. Peters is gonna defend Zach Edey? Who can guard Jaden Ivey? Box out Trevion Williams? Probably not Doug Edert that's for sure. Take Purdue -12.5 if you want to bet this game, but if you like a good underdog story bet on the other 3 games and place a little bit of your winnings on the St. Peters moneyline, and watch it burn away as they lose by 20+ to Purdue.

Happy Sweet Sixteen!! Let's rock let's roll!!